2014 Scottish independence referendum

The Kingdom of Scotland and the Kingdom of England were established as independent countries during the Middle Ages. After fighting a series of wars during the 14th century, the two monarchies entered a personal union in 1603 (the Union of the Crowns) when James VI of Scotland also became James I of England. The two nations were temporarily united under one government when Oliver Cromwell was declared Lord Protector of a Commonwealth in 1653, but this was dissolved when the monarchy was restored in 1660. Scotland and England united to form the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707 (Wales had already been unilaterally incorporated into England in the mid-16th century). The Scots favoured union to solve the economic problems caused by the failure of the Darien scheme and the English favoured it to secure the Hanoverian line of succession. Great Britain in turn united with the Kingdom of Ireland in 1801, forming the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Most of Ireland left the Union in 1922 to form the Irish Free State; consequently, the full name of the United Kingdom since 1927 is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The Labour Party was committed to home rule for Scotland in the 1920s, but it slipped down its agenda in the following years. The Scottish National Party (SNP) was founded in 1934, but did not achieve significant electoral success until the 1960s. A petition calling for home rule, the Scottish Covenant, was signed by 2,000,000 people (out of a population of 5,000,000) in the late 1940s.

As James Callaghan's Labour Government of the late 1970s was pressured by the SNP, Scottish devolution was, for the first time, seriously proposed. In a 1979 referendum for a devolved Scottish Assembly, a narrow majority of votes were cast in favour of devolution, but this had no effect due to a requirement that the number voting 'Yes' had to exceed 40% of the total electorate.

No further constitutional reform was proposed until Labour returned to power in a landslide electoral victory in May 1997. A second Scottish devolution referendum was held later that year, as promised in the Labour election manifesto. Clear majorities expressed support for both a devolved Scottish Parliament (74.3% in favour) and that Parliament having the power to vary the basic rate of UK income tax (63.5% in favour). …

The Scottish Government announced on 21 March 2013 that the referendum would be held on Thursday 18 September 2014. Some media reports mentioned that 2014 would be the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn and that Scotland would also host the 2014 Commonwealth Games and the 2014 Ryder Cup. Salmond agreed that the presence of these events made 2014 a "good year to hold a referendum".

Under the terms of the 2010 Draft Bill, the following people were entitled to vote in the referendum:

Convicted prisoners were not able to vote in the referendum. The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) had ruled that this restriction was unlawful, but Scottish judge Lord Glennie said that he believed the ECHR judgment would apply only to parliamentary elections. Appeals against his ruling were rejected by the Court of Session in Edinburgh and the UK Supreme Court.

The normal voting age was reduced from 18 to 16 for the referendum, as it was a Scottish National Party policy to reduce the voting age for all elections in Scotland. The move was supported by Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Greens.

In January 2012, Labour MSP Elaine Murray led a debate arguing that the franchise should be extended to Scots living outside Scotland, including the approximately 800,000 living in the other parts of the UK. This was opposed by the Scottish government, which argued that it would greatly increase the complexity of the referendum and stated that there was evidence from the United Nations Human Rights Committee that other nations "might question the legitimacy of a referendum if the franchise is not territorial".

In the House of Lords, Baroness Symons argued that the rest of the UK should be allowed to vote on Scottish independence because it would affect the whole country. This argument was rejected by the UK government, as the Advocate General for Scotland Lord Wallace said that "whether or not Scotland should leave the United Kingdom is a matter for Scotland". Wallace also pointed to the fact that only two of 11 referendums since 1973 had been across all of the United Kingdom. …

In 2013, as part of a European Union (EU) member state, Scottish farmers received £583 million in subsidy payments from the EU under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Annual CAP payments are made to the UK, which then determines how much to allocate to each of the devolved administrations, including Scotland. In the last CAP agreement, farmers in the UK qualified for additional convergence payments because Scottish farmers received a lower average single farm payment per hectare, mainly due to the mountainous terrain in Scotland. Supporters of independence therefore believed that an independent Scotland would receive greater agricultural subsidies as an independent state. Opponents of independence believed that Scottish farmers benefited from the Union because the UK was one of the larger EU member states, and therefore had a greater say in CAP negotiations. They also questioned whether an independent Scotland would immediately receive full subsidy payments from the EU, as recent new member states had their subsidies phased in.

At the time of the independence referendum, the UK had some opt-outs from EU policies. One was the opt-out from the Schengen Area, meaning there were full passport checks for travellers from other EU countries except the Republic of Ireland, which was part of a Common Travel Area (CTA) with the UK. The Scottish government proposed that an independent Scotland would remain outside the Schengen Area and remain inside the CTA, ensuring that no passport controls would be needed at the Anglo-Scottish border. Nicola Sturgeon commented that an independent Scotland would negotiate with the EU to have the same visa arrangements as the UK has.

Alistair Carmichael, the Secretary of State for Scotland, said in January 2014 that it would make sense for Scotland to be in the CTA, but it would have to operate similar immigration policies to the rest of the UK. This position was supported by Home Secretary Theresa May, who said in March 2014 that passport checks should be introduced if Scotland adopted a looser immigration policy. The Conservative MP Richard Bacon said there would be "no reason" for border controls to be implemented.

In the white paper Scotland's Future, the Scottish government pledged to expand childcare provision in an independent Scotland. …

A number of demonstrations in support of independence were co-ordinated following the announcement of the referendum. The March and Rally for Scottish Independence in September 2012 drew a crowd of between 5,000 and 10,000 people to Princes Street Gardens. The event was repeated in September 2013; police estimated that over 8,000 people took part in the march, while organisers and the Scottish Police Federation claimed between 20,000 and 30,000 people took part in the combined march and rally. The March and Rally was criticised in both 2012 and 2013 for the involvement of groups like the Scottish Republican Socialist Movement and Vlaamse Volksbeweging.

Five days before the referendum vote, the Orange Order – a Protestant brotherhood – held a major anti-independence march and rally in Edinburgh. It involved at least 15,000 Orangemen, loyalist bands and supporters from Scotland and across the UK, and was described as the biggest pro-Union demonstration of the campaign up to that date. A rally for UK unity, organised by the Let's Stay Together campaign, was attended by 5,000 people in London's Trafalgar Square on the Monday preceding the referendum. Similar events were held in London, Bristol, Leeds, Cardiff, Manchester and Belfast on the day before the referendum.

Labour MP Jim Murphy conducted a Scotland-wide tour to campaign for the No side, intending to visit 100 towns and cities in 100 days before the referendum. On 28 August he suspended his tour, after being hit by an egg in Kirkcaldy, and it was resumed on 3 September. Murphy said that he had been subjected to "co-ordinated abuse" from Yes supporters and pointed to evidence of this on social media. Better Together released footage of events in the tour where he was heckled by members of the public, some of whom called him a "traitor", "parasite", "terrorist" and "quisling". David Cameron said that "there's nothing wrong with a bit of heckling, but throwing things isn't necessarily part of the democratic process". Alex Salmond pointed out that people had "every entitlement to peaceful protest", but also said that "people shouldn't throw eggs at somebody full stop".

Hands Across the Border was a campaign founded in support of Scotland remaining in the United Kingdom. The campaign was the idea of Conservative politician Rory Stewart, MP for Penrith and The Border. …

Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling showed support for independence at 32%–38% of the Scottish population, which represented a slight decline from 2007, when the SNP had first formed the Scottish government. By 2012, there had been no poll evidence of majority support for independence, although the share "vehemently opposed to independence" had declined. According to Curtice, the polls were stable during most of 2013, with "no" leading by an average of 17% with a year to go. Polling expert Nate Silver said in 2013 that the yes campaign had "virtually no chance" of winning the referendum. After the referendum, Silver said that although his prediction had been proven "right" he had done little research beforehand.

The gap narrowed after the release of the Scottish government white paper on independence: an average of five polls in December 2013 and January 2014 gave 39% yes and 61% no, once 'don't knows' had been excluded. The polls tightened further after the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, stated in February that the UK government was opposed to a currency union; the average yes support increased to 43%, once 'don't knows' had been excluded. There was little movement in the following months, with the average continuing to show 43% yes and 57% no (excluding don't knows) in July 2014 and August 2014.

In early September, polls indicated that the vote would be closer than had been indicated earlier. On 6 September a YouGov poll gave those in favour 47% versus 45% for those against; excluding those undecided, the figures were 51% and 49%, respectively. The final polls, taken in the last few days of the campaign, indicated a lead for No of between 4% and 6%. No exit poll was conducted. Soon after polling stations had closed, YouGov released a final poll that had been taken during the day of voting, indicating 46% Yes, 54% No.

Writing after the referendum, Nate Silver pointed out that the final margin of victory for No was greater than that indicated by the opinion polls. He suggested that this could have been due to less enthusiastic voters being more pro-Union, which may not have been reflected in the polls. …