Scottish independence

Scotland emerged as an independent polity during the Early Middle Ages with some historians dating its foundation from the reign of Kenneth MacAlpin in 843. The level of independence of the Scottish kingdom was fought over by the Scottish kings and by the Norman and Angevin rulers of England who petitioned the pope in Rome and other foreign rulers.

A watershed in the Scottish kingdom's history was a succession crisis that erupted in 1290 when Edward I of England claimed the right of appointment to the Scottish throne. The Auld Alliance of Scotland and France against English interests was first invoked at that time and remained active through to the 16th century. The Wars of Scottish Independence ended in a renewed kingdom under Robert the Bruce (crowned 1306), whose grandson Robert II of Scotland was the first Scottish king of the House of Stuart.

From 1603 Scotland and England shared the same monarch in a personal union when James VI of Scotland was declared King of England and Scotland in what was known as the Union of the Crowns. After James II and VII was deposed in 1688 amid Catholic-Protestant disputes, and as the line of Protestant Stuarts showed signs of failing (as indeed occurred in 1714), English fears that Scotland would select a different monarch, potentially causing conflict within Great Britain, and the bankruptcy of many Scottish nobles through the Darien scheme led to the formal union of the two kingdoms in 1707, with the Treaty of Union and subsequent Acts of Union, to form the Kingdom of Great Britain. Scottish Jacobite resistance to the union, led by descendants of James II and VII including Bonnie Prince Charlie, continued until 1746.

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland was formed by the Acts of Union 1800, which united the Kingdom of Great Britain and the Kingdom of Ireland. …

While in Northern Ireland, the system of devolution includes a provision for independence referendums, under the Scottish devolution framework, there is no equivalent provision. Therefore, Scottish independence would need to be enacted exceptionally by a competent authority. Due to the UK having no codified constitution, there is dispute over which authorities have competence to enact Scottish independence.

The UK Parliament retains parliamentary sovereignty over the United Kingdom as a whole. Under this principle, the UK Parliament could enact Scottish independence without the need for a referendum. In AXA General Insurance Ltd and others v HM Advocate and others, the Deputy President of the Supreme Court, Lord Hope of Craighead, stated that "the sovereignty of the Crown in Parliament [...] is the bedrock of the British constitution. Sovereignty remains with the United Kingdom Parliament." However, the application of the principle of parliamentary sovereignty to Scotland has been disputed. In MacCormick v Lord Advocate, the Lord President of the Court of Session, Lord Cooper of Culross stated obiter dicta that "the principle of the unlimited sovereignty of Parliament is a distinctively English principle which has no counterpart in Scottish Constitutional Law." It has been suggested that the doctrine of popular sovereignty, proclaimed in the 1320 Declaration of Arbroath , articulated by Scottish political thinkers like George Buchanan and reasserted by the Claim of Right 1989 (signed by nearly every Labour and Liberal Democrat MP in Scotland at the time), is of greater relevance to Scotland.

Some lawyers have said that Parliament cannot repeal the Acts of Union because the Treaty of Union is a treaty in international law, made by two no longer existing, independent states. The law scholar David Walker wrote that regardless of any amendment or repeal of the Acts, the Treaty would remain in force because Parliament cannot alter the terms of international treaties. Professors James Crawford and Alan Boyle write that it is unlikely the Treaty of Union can be considered a treaty, but rather, as Smith wrote, it was a 'record of negotiations' and that the UK could not 'be bound by a treaty to which it was not party'. …

In 2014, the Scottish Government wrote that "[Scotland's] approach [to culture] has been, and will continue to be, distinct from that of Westminster". The Scottish Government position was that Scottish independence would give the Scottish Government more powers to encourage culture and creative sectors. In the event of independence, the Scottish Government planned to increase domestic creative production opportunities, such as by setting up a new national broadcaster, while maintaining access to current TV channels and with no additional cost to viewers and listeners.

The concept of a democratic deficit is the most frequently invoked argument in favour of independence. England has a majority (84%) of the UK population. Thus, constituency results for Scotland rarely affect the outcome of general elections. From the 1960s onwards, average voting patterns in Scotland and England have diverged. Scotland has only elected a majority of governing MPs in three of the 11 UK general elections since 1979. Devolution was intended to close this deficit, but Brexit, which happened despite 62% of voters in Scotland voting against it, has highlighted this concern. The Conservative Party, which often forms the UK Government by winning general elections, has not won a plurality of seats in Scotland since 1955.

Underpinning the democratic deficit argument is an assumption that Scotland is a nation with a right to self-determination. Were Scotland independent, Scotland's population would possess full decision-making power in regard to the political affairs of its nation. Alex Salmond stated in a May 2012 launch that "the people who live in Scotland are best placed to make the decisions that affect Scotland."

In January 2023, the UK Government blocked the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill from going to royal assent after it passed the Scottish Parliament 86 to 39. The UK Government overruled the bill by using for the first ever time Section 35 powers under the Scotland Act; the justification for the move was that they believed it would impact equalities legislation, which is reserved to Westminster. Nicola Sturgeon responded, arguing that the block had 'no grounds' and constituted a 'full-frontal attack on democracy'.

The United Kingdom is a plurinational, rather than multinational, state, where overlapping national identities exist. …

Scottish independence is supported most prominently by the Scottish National Party, but other parties also support independence. Other pro-independence parties which have held representation in the Scottish Parliament or the UK Parliament include the Scottish Greens, the Alba Party and the Scottish Socialist Party. Other parties which support Scottish independence include the Independence for Scotland Party, the Scottish Libertarian Party, and Sovereignty. At the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, 72 of the 129 seats available were won by pro-independence parties (64 SNP and 8 Greens). The independence movement consists of many factions with varying political views. The SNP wants Scotland to keep the monarchy (see personal union) and become an independent Commonwealth realm, similar to Canada, Australia or New Zealand. All of the other aforementioned pro-independence parties want Scotland to become an independent republic. The SSP has led republican protests and authored the Declaration of Calton Hill, calling for an independent republic.

The Independence Convention was set up in 2005, seeking "Firstly, to create a forum for those of all political persuasions and none who support independence; and secondly, to be a national catalyst for Scottish independence." The Scottish Republican Socialist Movement is a Pan-Socialist independence movement that believes that Scotland should be made an independent republic. This movement has a Firebrand socialist ethos, however is not affiliated with the SSP or the Scottish Communist Party. It believes that a failure to become independent should lead to mass emigration elsewhere, or as put as a slogan "Independence or Desertion".

Apart from the official Yes Scotland campaign for independence in the 2014 referendum, other groups in support of independence were formed at that time. This included the National Collective, an artist-driven movement which describes itself as "an open and non-party political collaboration of talent focused on driving social and political change in Scotland through a variety of the arts". It was responsible for organising a mock referendum held at the University of Glasgow in February 2013. Another group, the Radical Independence Campaign, described itself as "fighting for an independent Scotland that is for the millions not the millionaires". …

Many opinion polls were conducted about Scottish independence during the 2014 referendum campaign. Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling had shown support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population. This had fallen somewhat since the SNP were first elected to become the Scottish Government in 2007. The research also showed, however, that the proportion of the population strongly opposed to independence had also declined. Curtice stated in April 2014 that support for independence had increased since December 2013, although there was disagreement between the polling companies as to the true state of public opinion. Polls in the run-up to the referendum vote showed a closing of the gap, with one YouGov poll giving the Yes campaign a 51–49 lead. In the referendum Scotland voted against independence by 55.3% to 44.7%, with an overall turnout of 84.5%.

Since six weeks after the 2014 referendum, opinion polls have asked how people would vote in a proposed second referendum. Twenty-five polls were conducted in the year after the referendum, with seventeen of them having "No" as the predominant answer, seven having "Yes", and one having an equal proportion of respondents for each opinion.

In the year from September 2016 to September 2017, 25 of 26 polls conducted showed "No" as the most popular answer and only one showed "Yes" as the most popular answer. "No" continued to show a lead in opinion polls until July 2019, when one poll by Michael Ashcroft showed a narrow majority for "Yes". Professor John Curtice said after this poll was released that there had recently been a swing towards "Yes", and that this was concentrated among people who had voted to "Remain" in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

This pro-independence trend continued into 2020, as three polls in the early part of the year put "Yes" support at between 50% and 52%. In October 2020, an Ipsos MORI/STV News poll saw support for independence at its highest ever level, with 58% saying they would vote "Yes". As of December 2020, fifteen consecutive opinion polls had shown a lead for "Yes". The run of polls showing a "Yes" lead continued into January 2021, although the average support for Yes was down by two percentage points compared to polls by the same companies in late 2020. …